787
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED AND ANALYZED ALONG
85W, FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA
AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO 08N. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 08N90W TO 16N108W TO 10N120W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
13N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 07N EAST OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W, AND FROM 07N TO
09N BETWEEN 112W AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWARD TO 21N112W, AND
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FT, WITH SEAS TO 6 FT IN THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF. ELSEWHERE, A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA NEAR 38N147W EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF BAJA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THIS REGION.
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA REVEAL SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT NORTH
OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED NORTH OF 29N.
FARTHER SOUTH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO ARE
EXPECTED INTO MON BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON NIGHT. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO TUE AS TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF MON
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH COSTA
RICA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOCALLY STRONG
SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED WELL OFFSHORE OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA, NEAR A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N90W. TO THE
NORTH, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, ENHANCED BY LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AND EXPAND INTO THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA MON INTO MIDWEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N147W
EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W. ROUGH SEAS
IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION AS NOTED BY
RECENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA AND SOFAR BUOY DATA, WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS TO 11 FT NOTED NORTH OF 29N AND EAST OF 123W.
ELSEWHERE, A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N137W, AND A TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO 18N133W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS PREVAIL IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF 15N THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH,
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
15N WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 130W INTO MON MORNING, AND EAST
OF 130W MON INTO MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD S TO SE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
ADAMS
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