568
AXPZ20 KNHC 222154
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 22 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS ANALYZED ALONG 85.5W, FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO 07N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 07N TO 12N
BETWEEN 85W AND 93W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 08N90W TO 16N108W TO 11N120W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
13N137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 04N TO
08N EAST OF 85W, AND FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N112W,
AND HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO SW WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AS SEEN ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS
IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, A 1037 MB HIGH
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N146W EXTENDS RIDGING
THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OCCURRING NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT PREVAIL IN THIS REGION. FARTHER
SOUTH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO MON MORNING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MON BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON
NIGHT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE INTO TUE AS TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER
THE REGION. BRIEFLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
GULF MON NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL
PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH COSTA RICA, WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF PANAMA AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE
LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE, SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE
DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8
FT ARE NOTED WELL OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, NEAR A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N90W. TO THE NORTH, MODERATE NE WINDS ARE
PULSING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SUPPORTED BY LOW PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS REGION AND EXPAND INTO THE
WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA MON INTO MIDWEEK AS
LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COASTS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N146W
EXTENDS RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W, AS OBSERVED
ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL
PREVAIL OVER THIS REGION AS NOTED BY RECENT SOFAR BUOY DATA, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS TO 10 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N AND EAST OF
125W. ELSEWHERE, A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N137W, AND A
TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO 17N134W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THIS REGION. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE
NORTH OF 15N THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH,
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FOR MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF
15N WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEST OF 130W INTO MON MORNING, AND EAST
OF 130W MON INTO MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD S TO SE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH.
ADAMS
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