736
AXPZ20 KNHC 230913
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0820 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 88W, FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS SHEARED OFF TO THE NW IN THE
FORM OF A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL WIND SURGE MOVING ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE ELONGATED MONSOONAL CIRCULATION ACROSS
THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 75W AND 95W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS THE WATERS
EAST OF 93W AD IS DESCRIBED BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74W TO 11N83W TO 08N95W TO
11.5N105W TO 10.5N115W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N130W
TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 03.5N NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA EAST OF 93W,
FROM 05.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 106W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 107W AND 127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
BECOMING S FO SW ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS, AS RECENTLY DEPICTED
BY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THE GULF RANGE FROM 2
TO 3 FT NORTH PORTIONS TO 3 TO 5 FT SOUTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS.
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, A 1036 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 39N147W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE TO NEAR
22N115W. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND FRESH NW WINDS OCCURRING NORTH
THROUGH WEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA
WATERS HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, AND ARE 5 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THESE WATERS, EXCEPT TO 9 FT NORTHWEST OF ISLA GUADALUPE.
FARTHER SOUTH, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT IN MIXED NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELL PREVAIL OFFSHORE
OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO TEHUANTEPEC. NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO, AND EXTEND TO NEAR 90 NM OFF THE COAST.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRI, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH ALONG
THE COASTS EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NW SWELL
DOMINATING AREA SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH WED. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE TO FRESH THROUGH TUE AS TROUGHING PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
BRIEFLY STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF MON
NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH
OF THE AREA.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS
MUCH OF WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF GUATEMALA TO COSTA RICA, WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING NEARSHORE OF PANAMA AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING
SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH MONSOONAL SW WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS EAST OF 90W AND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT
10N. LOCALLY STRONG SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE NOTED
WELL OFFSHORE OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, NEAR AREAS OF ACTIVE
CONVECTION. TO THE NORTH OF 10N, MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE
PULSING TO FRESH ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, AND EXTEND OFFSHORE
TO 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE SOUTHWEST. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS
REGION AND EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA MON INTO MIDWEEK AS THIS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SUBSEQUENT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
AND OFF THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA
AND NICARAGUA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1036 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR
39N147W AND EXTENDS RIDGING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC W OF 115W. THIS
SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS NORTH OF 14N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, AND FRESH NE TO E WINDS NORTH OF 13N AND
WEST OF 130W. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL PREVAIL OVER
THIS REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS TO 10 FT OCCURRING NORTH OF
28N AND EAST OF 125W. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
EAST OF 120W, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO W WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE NOTED. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6
FT ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WEST OF
130W
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WEST OF 120W THROUGH MON EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS NORTH OF 15N WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL S TO SE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
STRIPLING
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