268
AXPZ20 KNHC 231554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 09N90W TO 15N110W TO 08N129W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N129W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 06N EAST OF
87W, AND FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND TO 23N110W. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SE TO SW WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE OCCURRING THROUGH THE
GULF, WITH LOCALLY FRESH W WINDS OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. ELSEWHERE, RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N148W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, WHERE
ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE NOTED. OTHERWISE, A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICO WATERS IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS. SEAS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL, AND 4 TO 6 FT
IN S SWELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH AND STRENGTHENS. OCCASIONALLY
ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS TO THE WEST.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THROUGH NICARAGUA, AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO
FRESH E WINDS ARE PULSING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, SUPPORTED BY
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST, CENTERED NEAR 09N90W. LOCALLY FRESH SW
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS
LOW. OTHERWISE, MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN
MIXED SW AND S SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO NE WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTHWEST. FRESH NE WINDS WILL EXPAND
THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA BY TUE
AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS
WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA, EL
SALVADOR, HONDURAS, AND GUATEMALA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF
10N AND WEST OF 120W AS RIDGING PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA NEAR 38N148W. ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN N SWELL PREVAIL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF 23N AND EAST OF 127W.
FARTHER WEST, RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT, AIDED BY LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS, ARE NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N WEST OF 135W. SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO SW WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W INTO
TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FOR MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. ROUGH SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT, AND WEST OF
135W IN THE TRADE WIND REGION THROUGH TUE. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-
PERIOD MIXED S AND SE SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF
05N TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK.
ADAMS
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