342
WTNT41 KNHC 241411
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
1100 AM AST TUE JUN 24 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES THAT WE HAVE
BEEN MONITORING FOR A FEW DAYS (90L) DEVELOPED PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF 2.0, AND THE CURRENT
WIND ESTIMATE OF 35 KT IS SUPPORTED BY THE PAST SEVERAL
SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS. EVEN THOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW DECREASING, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND PULSING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM
HAS MET THE CRITERIA OF BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM, ALBEIT
A MARGINAL ONE, MAKING TROPICAL STORM ANDREA THE FIRST ATLANTIC
STORM OF THE YEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/15 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY 36
HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCA AND HCCA
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
ANDREA WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM, AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO AROUND 21/22C, WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KNOTS, IN A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS ANDREA AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH TODAY, WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BECAUSE OF THE COLD WATERS AND
DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 36.6N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 37.9N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 39.6N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE/HAGEN
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