275
WTNT41 KNHC 242036
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012025
500 PM AST TUE JUN 24 2025
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA COLLAPSED AROUND 1500Z AND
HAS NOT REDEVELOPED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 1.5, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE DEGRADATION
IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING SHOWED NUMEROUS 33 TO 36 KNOT WIND BARBS, SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/17 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY 24
HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON ANDREA NOW WITH THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM, AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20/21C, WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-40 KNOTS, IN A DRY MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA BECOMING A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT, WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/2100Z 37.9N 47.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 39.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA/BLAKE
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