225
AXPZ20 KNHC 251536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 25 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 09N92W TO 10N125W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO BEYOND
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W, AND FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM
06N TO 08N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE N GAP WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR 14N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS
ARE DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MODEST HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 09N92W. ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROL OF
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 110W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW BREEZES NORTH OF 20N
EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND FRESH
WESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING AROUND THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE SW TO W INSIDE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 5 FT OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUES.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THU THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF PAPAGAYO ATTEMPTS TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED, WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
FRI. FARTHER NORTH, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF OAXACA BY LATE SAT,
EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO BY LATE SUN AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG E
GAP WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE PAPAGAYO REGION NORTHWARD TO
NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND W-SW TO NEAR 93W, THEN TURNING NE AND INTO
A BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 09N92W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER, TO THE
SOUTH OF 12.5N AND OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS, MEXICO.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO, AND 7 TO 9 FT TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W BREEZES AND
4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND MUCH OF PANAMA, AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD AND OFFSHORE TO 05.5N AND WESTWARD TO 88W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING AS 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE NEAR 09N92W ATTEMPTS TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED, WHILE SHIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THESE FRESH WINDS
WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THOSE COASTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, BUT A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FRI
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 110W, CENTERED ON A 1031 MB
HIGH NEAR 37N148W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EAST OF 130W, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FT WEST OF 130W. MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 10N, WITH GENTLE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH
FRI NIGHT, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINS TO DRIFT NE. SEAS NORTH OF 10N
WILL SUBSIDE MODESTLY THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, MIXED S AND SE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 06N OVER THE
WEEKEND.
CHRISTENSEN
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