256
AXPZ20 KNHC 260252
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS, MEXICO HAVE CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CURRENTLY, A 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 09.5N93W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
TO 25 KT ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND TO
210 NM TO THE NORTH. PEAKS SEAS IN THE AREA ARE 8 TO 9 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 11N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ALONG 86W SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG 84W TO THE NORTH OF 05N. THIS WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOTED FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CARIBBEAN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 11N83W TO LOW
PRESSURE 1007 MB NEAR 09.5N93W TO 12.5N107W TO 12.5N118W TO
09N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO
11N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W, FROM 11N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
06.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W AND 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG N GAP WINDS
TO NEAR 30 KT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
TO NEAR 14N. THESE WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, AND ARE
GENERATING SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
MEXICO AND 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
09.5N93W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 14.5N
OFFSHORE AND IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IS CONTROL OF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
110W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW BREEZES NORTH
OF 20N EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND
FRESH WESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING AROUND THE COAST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE S INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 5 FT
OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE
SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THU THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
FRI AS LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF PAPAGAYO ATTEMPTS TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED, WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
FRI. FARTHER NORTH, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF OAXACA BY LATE SAT,
EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO BY LATE SUN AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE REGION THIS EVENING, AND DESCRIBED
ABOVE. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
ONGOING OFF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 09.5N93W. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SW TO W BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE OFF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH THU ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09.5N93W, BEFORE MARINE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THERE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO
FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 110W, CENTERED ON A 1029 MB
HIGH NEAR 36N145W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT SEAS EAST OF 130W, AND MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 5 TO 8 FT WEST OF 130W. MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 10N, WITH GENTLE BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH
FRI NIGHT, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINS TO DRIFT NE. SEAS NORTH OF 10N
WILL SUBSIDE MODESTLY THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE, MIXED S AND SE
SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 07N OVER THE
WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page