758
AXPZ20 KNHC 260857
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ANALYZED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS, MEXICO, NEAR 10N94W
MOVING W-NW AROUND 5 KT. FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND WITHIN 420 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND TO 180 NM TO THE NORTH. PEAKS SEAS IN
THE AREA ARE 8 TO 9 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING EARLIER TONIGHT HAS SHIFTED WELL WEST
OF THE LOCAL LEVEL CENTER, BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ALONG 86W SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC TO 05N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS NOTED FROM FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 89W
AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 11N82W TO LOW PRESSURE
1007 MB NEAR 10N94W TO 11.5N104W TO 11.5N118W TO 09.5N127W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09.5N127W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 80W,
FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 91W, AND FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN
96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
RECENT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED STRONG N GAP WINDS TO
28 KT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO NEAR
14.5N, AND ARE GENERATING SEAS 6 TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MODEST HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN MEXICO AND 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM 15.5N OFFSHORE TO 10N TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
IS DESCRIBED ABOVE. ELSEWHERE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTROL OF
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 110W. THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW BREEZES NORTH OF 20N
EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA AND MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS FUNNELING AROUND THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE FROM THE S INSIDE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT PREVAIL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, 1 TO
3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 5 FT OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SOUTHERLY SWELL
CONTINUES.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA THROUGH THU THEN GRADUALLY BECOME NE
AND DIMINISH FRI AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N94W ATTEMPTS TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED, WHILE SHIFTING SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. FARTHER NORTH, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH THU EVENING, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
THROUGH SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
EXPECTED OFF OAXACA BY LATE SAT, EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF GUERRERO ON SUN, AND THE WATERS OF MICHOACAN MON AS
THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE COASTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALONG THE COASTS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WESTERN PANAMA
TO GUATEMALA, ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT, AND DESCRIBED ABOVE. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR AND EXTEND TO THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WHILE FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 10N94W. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SW TO W BREEZES AND 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR THROUGH EARLY FRI ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N94W, BEFORE MARINE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THERE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BUT A
HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. CROSS- EQUATORIAL S SWELL
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC NORTH OF 13N AND WEST OF 110W, CENTERED ON A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 36N145W. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
N TO NE WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS EAST OF 130W, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FT
SOUTH OF 16N, AND MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SEAS 5 TO
8 FT WEST OF 130W. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN S
TO SW SWELL ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 10N, WITH GENTLE BREEZES AND 4 TO
6 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH
FRI NIGHT, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EAST OF 125W OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA BEGINS TO DRIFT NE.
SEAS NORTH OF 10N WILL SUBSIDE MODESTLY THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE
CHANGE THEN THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, MIXED S AND SE SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
PROMOTING ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 07N OVER THE WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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