505
AXPZ20 KNHC 261554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1530 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 93W-97W IS CENTERED NEAR
10N94W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF S
MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 40 PERCENT, WHILE
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS 80 PERCENT.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 05N
NEAR 88W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN 86W-91W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD TO
05N NEAR 80W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM
05N-09N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W TO 08N132W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 08N132W AND GOES BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-15N BETWEEN 93W-97W AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 82W-86W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN
86W-91W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 100W-110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING THIS
MORNING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GAP WINDS ARE
PARTIALLY BEING FORCED BY A BROAD 1007 MB LOW WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND W
OAXACA WATERS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS
5-6 FT OVER PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE BROAD LOW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF S
MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE FRESH
NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING SUN
NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE TO SW GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 10N AND E GENTLE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SEAS ARE 6-7 FT IN S SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE NICARAGUA, COSTA
RICA, AND W PANAMA WATERS TODAY.
FOR THE FORECAST, WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
QUIESCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES, AN ACTIVE MONSOON
TROUGH IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT
FORECAST WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH AT 36N147W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 30N123W TO 20N110W. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM THE RIDGE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS
FORCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADES NORTH OF 10N. SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO FRESH.
SEAS ARE 7-9 FT FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 90W-110W IN MIXED SWELL.
SEAS ARE 8 FT IN SE SWELL SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
100W-115W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 100W-110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LARGE SEAS NEAR 10N AND 100W SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY FRI NIGHT. THE LARGE SE SWELL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LANDSEA
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