139
AXPZ20 KNHC 262134
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 26 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 93W-97W IS CENTERED NEAR
10N95W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF S
MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT. FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS 50 PERCENT, WHILE
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS 80 PERCENT.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 05N
NEAR 88W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD TO
05N NEAR 81W. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT, WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 83W-87W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W TO 09N123W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 09N123W AND GOES BEYOND
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
10N-16N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 104W-122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 7-8 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GAP WINDS ARE
PARTIALLY BEING FORCED BY A BROAD 1007 MB LOW WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 10N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 5-6 FT OVER
PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOMORROW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BROAD LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OFF THE COAST OF S MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD
INDUCE FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
BEGINNING SUN NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE TO SW GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 10N, AND E GENTLE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE 6-7 FT IN S SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE NICARAGUA,
COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE FORECAST, WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
QUIESCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT FORECAST
WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH AT 36N146W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 30N125W TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE RIDGE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS
FORCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED FRESH NE TRADES
NORTH OF 09N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO
SW MODERATE TO FRESH. SEAS ARE 7-8 FT FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN
90W-112W IN MIXED SWELL. SEAS ARE 7-8 FT IN SE SWELL SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 97W-120W. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN MIXED
SWELL. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N-14N
BETWEEN 104W-122W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LARGE SEAS NEAR 10N AND 100W SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY FRI NIGHT. THE LARGE SE SWELL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SHOULD
PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING
AHEAD, A WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD DIMINISH THE TRADES WEST OF 110W
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LANDSEA
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