588
AXPZ20 KNHC 270259
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN DISORGANIZED. ITS CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR
9.7N/95.3W, WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM, WHILE FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 05N
NEAR 89W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 07N AND E OF 91W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD TO
05N NEAR 83W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 05N AND E OF WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 1007 MB LOW (EP95) NEAR
10N95W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N119W TO 09N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM THAT POINT TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GAP WINDS ARE PARTIALLY BEING
FORCED BY A BROAD 1007 MB LOW WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
CENTERED NEAR 10N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WATERS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS OVER
PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOMORROW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BROAD LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OFF THE COAST OF S MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE FRESH
NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING SUN
NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE TO SW GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 10N, AND E GENTLE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN S SWELL. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
NICARAGUA, COSTA RICA, AND PANAMA WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WHILE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
QUIESCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER FORECAST WATERS. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT FORECAST
WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH AT
36N147W SOUTHEASTWARD TO 30N125W TO 20N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH ISOLATED
FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 09N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,
WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO FRESH. SEAS ARE MODERATE TO ROUGH
FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 90W-112W IN MIXED SWELL. SIMILAR SEAS IN SE
SWELL ARE SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 97W-120W. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LARGE SEAS NEAR 10N AND 100W SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
BY FRI NIGHT. THE LARGE SE SWELL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SHOULD
PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAKENING
RIDGE SHOULD DIMINISH THE TRADES WEST OF 110W EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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