857
AXPZ20 KNHC 270854
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. ITS CENTER IS
ANALYZED NEAR 10N/95.5W, WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM, WHILE FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD TO 05N
NEAR 90W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING N OF 07N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD TO
05N NEAR 83W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 1007 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 10N95.5W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N119W TO 09N121W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 97W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GAP WINDS ARE PARTIALLY BEING
FORCED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WATERS. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS OVER PACIFIC FORECAST WATERS AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE PULSING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NW AWAY
FROM THE AREA. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES BEGINNING
SAT NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE FRESH NW WINDS
OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING SUN NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE TO SW GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH WHICH LIES ALONG 10N, AND E GENTLE NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL IN S SWELL. A LARGE PLUME
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, MAINLY N OF 03N AND E OF 81W.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGES
WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT FORECAST
WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 36N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 08N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO FRESH. AN AREA OF
ROUGH SEAS IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W IN
MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ROUGH SEAS NEAR 10N AND 106W SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY. A LARGE SE SWELL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD DIMINISH THE TRADES WEST OF 110W EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ERA
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