635
AXPZ20 KNHC 271606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM, WHILE FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO
05N WITH AXIS NEAR 84W, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 02N BETWEEN 74W
AND 84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
WAVE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 10N95W TO 11N110W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N118W TO 07N126W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE, NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 330 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 420 NM W SEMICIRCLE. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W, AND
FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE INDUCING THESE GAP WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC
WHILE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP95
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS BETWEEN 92W AND 99W.
ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS MIXED SW AND NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS WILL
CONTINUE PULSING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES NW AWAY
FROM THE AREA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH SEAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BEGINNING SUN EVENING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR N OF 12N AND S TO SW WINDS OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE S OF
12N. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS
IN MIXED S AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH COMBINED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT FORECAST
WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1029 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 36N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 08N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO FRESH. AN AREA OF
ROUGH SEAS IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 12N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W IN
MIXED SWELL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE ROUGH SEAS NEAR 10N AND 106W SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY. A LARGE SE SWELL ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER
SHOULD PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
WEAKENING RIDGE SHOULD DIMINISH THE TRADES WEST OF 110W EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
RAMOS
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