299
AXPZ20 KNHC 272216 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 27 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2140 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED SOME DURING THE MORNING, BUT REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW
FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SE TO S WINDS OVER THE CHIAPAS AND
GUATEMALA OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ONGOING. SEAS ARE 7 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM, WHILE FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA NEAR 07N85W, AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N
TO 09N E OF 87W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1009 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 11N94W TO 11N110W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N120W TO 07N125W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE,
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND 330 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH EP95. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N
TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 116W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W
AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT ARE
ONGOING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS INDUCING THESE GAP WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC
WHILE THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP95
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE WINDS BETWEEN 91W AND 100W.
ELSEWHERE, LOCALLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EP95
WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS WHILE MOVING FROM THE OAXACA
OFFSHORES TO THE OFFSHORES OF GUERRERO SUN EVENING. FRESH TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THE REMAINDER SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WED.
EP95 WILL START IMPACTING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM WED MORNING THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE N
OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE S TO SE AND SEAS
ARE MODERATE TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP95 MOVE NW ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORES. FRESH WINDS WILL START PULSING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
SAT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL IMPACT FORECAST
WATERS BEGINNING ON SAT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 36N146W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 08N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LARGE SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N
OF THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD NE TO THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORES ON TUE WITH ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE SWELL WILL START
TO SUBSIDE WED.
RAMOS
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