004
AXPZ20 KNHC 280905
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (INVEST EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REMAIN DISORGANIZED. AT THIS TIME, THE LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 12N95W, WITH MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N BETWEEN 91W AND 102W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORMATION CHANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM, WHILE FORMATION
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS IS HIGH.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA ALONG 87W AND N OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS, WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY FOCUSED N OF 08N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 1008 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 12N95W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N121W TO 08N126W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO EP95 AND THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED ABOVE, SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N AND W OF 102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ON INVEST EP95.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW
ASSOCIATED TO EP95 IS HELPING INDUCING THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 WILL REACH FRESH TO
STRONG SPEEDS WHILE MOVING FROM THE OAXACA OFFSHORES TO THE
OFFSHORES OF GUERRERO BEGINNING ON SUN. FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
REMAINDER SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WED. EP95 WILL START
IMPACTING THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR OFFSHORE WATERS FROM WED
MORNING THROUGH FRI. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N
OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM THE S TO SE AND SEAS
ARE MODERATE IN SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE GUATEMALA AND EL
SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP95 MOVE NW ACROSS THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORES. FRESH WINDS WILL START PULSING IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OVER THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ZONES, A LARGE S SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1030 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 36N145W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE RIDGE TO
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 08N. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ, WINDS ARE SE TO SW MODERATE TO FRESH. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LARGE SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N
OF THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD NE TO THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORES ON TUE WITH ROUGH SEAS. THE SWELL WILL START TO
SUBSIDE BY MID-WEEK.
ERA
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