571
AXPZ20 KNHC 281602
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 28 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF
11N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 13N96W TO 12N110W TO 08N128W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
08N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
EP95, SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W, FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 100W AND
122W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N W OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON INVEST EP95. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS WITH MODERATE
SEAS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS PREVAIL ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
SE AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AS INVEST EP95 DEVELOPS.
CURRENTLY, GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE, AND
ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO TUE AND TUE NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD
INDUCE FRESH SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH EP95 IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS
IN S TO SW SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL PULSE TO STRONG SPEEDS, MAINLY AT
NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUE. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED. CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WATERS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TROUGH LATE MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1031 MB HIGH
CENTERED AT 36N145W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADES NORTH OF 08N.
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ, MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS AREA NOTED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LARGE SW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS N
OF THE EQUATOR SUN NIGHT AND SPREAD NE TO THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES
ON TUE WITH ROUGH SEAS. THE SWELL WILL START TO SUBSIDE BY MID-
WEEK.
GR
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