943
WTNT42 KNHC 282055
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT ENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY
THIS MORNING (INVEST 91L) HAS SLOWLY IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION HAD BEEN MOSTLY BURSTING ON THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, BUT IS MORE RECENTLY STARTING TO FILL IN
OVER THE NORTHERN SIDE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION
HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEY WERE ABLE TO
CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION CENTER, ALBEIT WITH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF WIND.
THIS WIND FIELD MATCHES THE SATELLITE-DERIVED SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA AT 1619 UTC WHICH SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION, BUT WITH PEAK
WINDS OF ONLY 24 KT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION WITH THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION NOTED, ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT, MATCHING THE T1.5/25-KT ESTIMATE
PROVIDED BY TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE OFF TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 290/6 KT. THIS MOTION WITH A SLIGHT BEND A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO JUST AFTER 36 H. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT, THOUGH WITH
THE ECMWF ON THE SOUTH END AND GFS ON THE NORTH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND
IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCN AND HCCA CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE DEPRESSION'S WIND FIELD IS STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD AND IN THE
FORMATIVE STAGES. IN ADDITION, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
IDEAL, WITH SOME 20-25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE THAT SHOULD PREVENT MORE ROBUST
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND, SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM (28-29 C) AND THERE IS AMPLE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THUS, SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY, AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE
DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN
MEXICO. HOWEVER, ONCE INLAND AFTER 36 H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE
RUGGED HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LARGELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AID HCCA AND THE MOST
RECENT HWRF HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODEL RUN.
GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL, THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THEIR EASTERN GULF COASTLINE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 19.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 19.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 20.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 21.9N 97.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.1N 98.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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