554
WTNT42 KNHC 290232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION THIS AFTERNOON, THE
AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO CLOSE OFF THE CIRCULATION. SINCE THAT TIME,
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 2235 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOW
LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION, ALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS STILL CLOSED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/7. THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER THE
SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 24 H
POINT. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE
TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
SOME ERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH
THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE DIVERGENT, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DESPITE
THE SHEAR, AND BASED ON THIS THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL, A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A
PORTION OF THEIR EASTERN GULF COASTLINE OF MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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