625
AXPZ20 KNHC 290342
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0325 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO (EP95):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THE
SYSTEM DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION,
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM WILL LIKELY FORM TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW MEXICO FROM
JALISCO TO GUERRERO AND WESTERN OAXACA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS, AND ALSO
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
PLEASE, READ THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION,
INCLUDING GALE WARNINGS, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW (EP95)
NEAR 13N98W TO 14N110W TO 09N125W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N125W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
EP95, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 08N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 87W AND 122W, AND
ALSO FROM 06N TO 11N AND W OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON INVEST EP95. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE
AND LOWER PRESSURES IN MEXICO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 3-5 FT (1-1.5 M). OUTSIDE OF THE IMPACT OF INVEST 95E,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
SE AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS AS INVEST EP95 DEVELOPS.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON
NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO TUE
AND TUE NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LOS CABOS AND
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED THROUGH THU.
OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORCING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 89W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT (1.5-2
M). MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-8 FT
(1.5-2.5 M) ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 02N, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING WINDS TO STRONG SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED,
MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WED.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL
S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR
38N144W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND LOWER
PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 125W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT (1.5-2 M). MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE EVIDENT
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W BY THU MORNING.
DELGADO
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