103
WTNT42 KNHC 290833
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING THE
DEPRESSION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE
SYSTEM IS QUITE DISORGANIZED. IN FACT, THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT EVEN
HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. EVEN THOUGH THE STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED, THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED SOME. BASED ON THAT
INFORMATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8 KT. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO LATE TODAY
OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION
AND GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE AND LIMITED TIME OVER WATER,
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 19.9N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 20.6N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 21.6N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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