206
WTPZ41 KNHC 290834
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 AM CST SUN JUN 29 2025
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A 29/0328 UTC ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED, CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND
25 KT. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T-2.5 AND T-2.0, RESPECTIVELY. THE
DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
HAS A LARGE RMW. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS, A MOIST MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERE AND LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 DAYS AS IT
PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE LARGE RMW, ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 H. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY ONCE IT ESTABLISHES A STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORE, AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR
BY TUESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY AT 60-72 H, AND CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE. BY 96 H, THE CYCLONE
SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER, AND RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN 4 TO 5
DAYS, WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 5.
THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD, OR
270/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY MOVE IN A
DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. THE NHC
FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, CLOSE TO THE
TVCE CONSENSUS.
RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A
TRACK EVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 13.0N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 13.4N 100.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 17.8N 106.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 18.8N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 20.9N 109.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 22.6N 112.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER HAGEN
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