475
AXPZ20 KNHC 290935
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0925 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 99.5W AT 29/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35
KT. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY, FOLLOWED BY STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER, AND
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX-E IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS
OF LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIX-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1008 MB LOW (TD SIX-E)
NEAR 13N99W TO 14N110W TO 09N126W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM
09N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
TD SIX-E, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 16W AND WEST OF 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC
EXTENDS INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MEXICO. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MAINLY MODERATE NW WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 4-5 FT (~1.5 M). LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WESTERLY
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MIDDLE OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTS
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4-6 FT (1.5-2 M). MEANWHILE, LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA
SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS IN THE
AREA DESCRIBED ARE 5-8 FT (1.5-2.5 M) WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WED. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS
EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 39N140W. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 5-7 FT (1.5-2 M). SATELLITE DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THESE WATERS DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY SWELL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 133W BY THU MORNING.
DELGADO
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