896  
WTPZ41 KNHC 291441  
TCDEP1  
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025  
900 AM CST SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING,  
WITH CURVED BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. RECENT  
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT CONVECTION IS BURSTING NEAR  
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. THE LATEST  
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5, FROM BOTH TAFB AND  
SAB. USING THESE ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS, THE  
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THUS, THE SIXTH  
NAMED SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.  
 
FLOSSIE IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING  
WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C, MOIST MID-LEVELS AND LOW TO MODERATE WIND  
SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, THE  
LATEST NHC FORECAST NOW DEPICTS STEADY STRENGTHENING, WITH THE STORM  
BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 H. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST,  
THERE ARE SOME ABOVE NORMAL SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI)  
PROBABILITIES AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR RI, WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE  
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST  
REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE LATEST  
HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.  
 
THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 280/8 KT,  
ALTHOUGH AS THE INNER CORE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THERE COULD BE SOME  
SHORT-TERM TRACK ADJUSTMENTS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN  
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS  
NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, IN BETWEEN THE SIMPLE CONSENSUS HCCA  
CORRECTED CONSENSUS.  
 
RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A  
TRACK EVEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD  
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,  
COLIMA AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING  
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP  
TERRAIN.  
 
2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND  
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR  
A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 29/1500Z 13.4N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 30/0000Z 14.1N 100.7W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 30/1200Z 15.2N 102.1W 55 KT 65 MPH  
36H 01/0000Z 16.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH  
48H 01/1200Z 17.5N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH  
60H 02/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH  
72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 108.4W 75 KT 85 MPH  
96H 03/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH  
120H 04/1200Z 23.9N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
 

 
FORECASTER KELLY  
 
 
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