294
WTNT42 KNHC 291458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT THIS
MORNING, THOUGH IT IS NOT TERRIBLY WELL-ORGANIZED, THANKS IN LARGE
PART TO CONTINUED 25-30 KT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE
SYSTEM, AND HAS FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CENTER THIS MORNING WITH
FIXES ALSO INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS GAINING MORE LATITUDE.
WITHIN THE PAST 20 MINUTES, A NORTHEAST INBOUND LEG INTO THE STORM
FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT, AND A DROPSONDE WITH A
SURFACE WIND GUST OF 39 KT. THIS RECENT WIND INFORMATION IS THE
PRIMARY BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WINDS TO 35 KT, MAKING THE
DEPRESSION TROPICAL STORM BARRY.
AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE STORM IS NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD,
WITH THE MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/5 KT. A NARROW LOW-TO-MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THIS DIRECTION UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER EASTERN
MEXICO BY THE END OF TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS JUST A BIT MORE NORTHWESTWARD COMPARED TO THE PRIOR ONE,
MOSTLY ACCOUNTING FOR CHANGES IN THE INITIAL POSITION, BUT REMAIN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE
CENTER ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS APPEARS PARTIALLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE
TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE TODAY, AND IN FACT MIGHT
EVEN GET WORSE AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
STORM FLOSSIE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.
DESPITE THE SHEAR, WATERS OVER THE GULF REMAIN WARM (28-29 C) AND
THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
IS ALSO QUITE DIFLUENT OVER THE SYSTEM, SO THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL TONIGHT
OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE REGIONAL
HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE (E.G., HWRF AND HAFS-B). THE SYSTEM SHOULD
THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY AS SOON AS IT MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT WITH
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY.
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH BARRY REMAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN UPSLOPE TERRAIN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE AREA OF OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN, ARE POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 20.4N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 21.2N 97.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 22.0N 98.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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