393
AXPZ20 KNHC 291554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
IT IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 29/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 8
KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 96W AND 103.5W. TROPICAL STORM
FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS
OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 13N110W TO 08N133W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES
FROM 08N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 12W BETWEEN 120W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE LOCATED ABOUT 210 NM S OF ACAPULCO,
MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW WINDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHILE GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MODERATE NW
WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF CABO CORRIENTES. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS IN
SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 14.1N
100.7W THIS EVENING, 15.2N 102.1W MON MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.3N 103.7W MON EVENING, 17.5N 105.4W TUE
MORNING, 18.7N 107.0W TUE EVENING, AND 19.8N 108.4W WED MORNING.
FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 21.7N 110.4W EARLY
THU. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE
FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A BROAD RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTS
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 89W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4 TO 6 FT. MEANWHILE, LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 04N. SEAS IN THE AREA
DESCRIBED ARE 5 TO 8 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING SOUTH OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST WED. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS
EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR
AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N140W. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 130W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT. SATELLITE DATA ALSO CAPTURED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS ARE NOTED IN THESE AREAS DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY SWELL. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 131W BY THU MORNING.
GR
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