038
WTNT42 KNHC 292036
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022025
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE FINAL LEG EXITING BARRY IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SAMPLING
THE STORM MEASURED A 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 51 KT AT 1647 UTC.
THIS DATA WAS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE WINDS TO 40 KT AT 18 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY USING THE STANDARD SURFACE WIND REDUCTION
FACTOR. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM, THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS REMAINED QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST,
THOUGH A LARGER CURVED BAND IS ATTEMPTING TO ORGANIZE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SMALL SURFACE VORTEX. THE CENTER HAS ALSO BEEN
TRACKABLE ON RADAR BASED OUT OF TAMPICO, MEXICO. BASED PARTIALLY OFF
THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA, THE INTENSITY OF BARRY REMAINS 40 KT THIS
ADVISORY, BUT THIS VALUE IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
ESTIMATES OF 41 KT AND 40 KT FROM ADT AND SATCON RESPECTIVELY.
BARRY CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE LATEST MOTION
ESTIMATED AT 315/8 KT, FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED BY A LOW-TO-MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF, WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN BARRY'S NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL THIS EVENING NEAR CABO ROJO, BETWEEN
THE CITIES OF TUXPAN AND TAMPICO, MEXICO. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS
ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE RIGHT THAN THE PRIOR TRACK, AND IS CLOSEST TO
THE INTERPOLATED 12 UTC ECMWF TRACK AID THIS CYCLE (EMXI).
TIME IS JUST ABOUT UP FOR BARRY TO INTENSIFY MORE BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO. WEAKENING SHOULD
BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES INLAND AND ESPECIALLY
WHEN IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH RUGGED TERRAIN LOCATED IN EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO. THIS WEAKENING IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST, AND BARRY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY
ON MONDAY, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL
AND HURRICANE REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH BARRY REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST FORECAST RAINFALL GRAPHIC FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
INTERNATIONAL DESK FOR MORE INFORMATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM BARRY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO IN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 21.2N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.0N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/1800Z 22.8N 98.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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