391
WTPZ41 KNHC 292037
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 PM CST SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED FLOSSIE
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER,
RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE BROKEN
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AS FLOSSIE IS STILL TRYING TO ORGANIZE
AND CONSOLIDATE. A 1600 UTC METOP-C SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED, HOWEVER WAS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION, AND SATELLITE-DERIVED
WINDS WERE AROUND 31 KT. USING THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES T2.5, FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB,
THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FLOSSIE IS LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING
WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LOW TO
MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES REMAIN
ELEVATED IN LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE, HOWEVER RI IS NOT EXPLICITLY
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS, CLOSEST TO THE HURRICANE REGIONAL AIDS, BUT LIES
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
295/7 KT. THE STORM IS FORECAST MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A
TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED TOMORROW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE PREVIOUS, AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS AIDS.
RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A
TRACK EVEN A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD
BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR A
PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.5N 102.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 16.8N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 19.0N 107.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 20.0N 108.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 22.0N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 24.0N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KELLY
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