465
AXPZ20 KNHC 292117
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT 29/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 104W.
SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN
97W AND 110W. TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA,
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 11N95W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 14N110W TO 08N134W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES
FROM 08N134W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W, AND
07N TO 12W BETWEEN 122W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE LOCATED ABOUT 205 NM S OF ACAPULCO,
MEXICO.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OUTSIDE OF T.S. FLOSSIE. MAINLY MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS NEAR 13.5N 100.4W AT
2 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 14.3N 101.2W
MON MORNING, 15.5N 102.7W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.8N 104.3W TUE MORNING, 17.9N 106.0W TUE
AFTERNOON, 19.0N 107.4W WED MORNING, AND 20.0N 108.8W WED
AFTERNOON. FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N
110.8W THU AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE
AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE,
RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 04N, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS N OF
04N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST,
MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WED.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW
SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N139W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 18N BETWEEN 112W
AND 118W. ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 4
TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY THU MORNING, AND N
OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 129W BY FRI MORNING.
GR
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