001
WTPZ41 KNHC 300233
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 PM CST SUN JUN 29 2025
FLOSSIE IS HOLDING STEADY AS A BROAD TROPICAL STORM. NEW BURSTS OF
DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -80 DEGREES C. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION OPEN TO THE EAST, INDICATING A POSSIBLE DRY
AIR INTRUSION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 31 TO 45 KT, WITH THE MAJORITY NEAR 35 KT.
THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WARM WATERS, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ABUNDANT
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR FLOSSIE TO STRENGTHEN. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY,
AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS PERIODS OF STEADY-TO-RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST LIES ON
THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THE PEAK AT
48 H, FLOSSIE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
AND CROSS OVER COOLING WATERS WHICH WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD AT 295/7 KT. FLOSSIE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST ANTICIPATED SOON AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD.
THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, CLOSEST TO THE
HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AID.
RESIDENTS OF MEXICO SHOULD STAY UPDATED ON THE LATEST FORECAST. A
SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BRING
MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN.
2. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY FOR A PORTION
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0300Z 14.0N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 14.8N 102.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 16.0N 103.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 17.2N 105.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 18.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 19.1N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 20.0N 109.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 24.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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