815
AXPZ20 KNHC 300405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 101.0W AT 30/0300
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
93W AND 119W. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STEADY-TO-RAPID STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 11N95W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 14N106W TO 10N123W TO 07N137W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N137W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W, AND FROM 07N TO
11W BETWEEN 129W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE
GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OUTSIDE OF T.S. FLOSSIE. MAINLY MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 14.8N 102.0W MON
MORNING, 16.0N 103.6W MON EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
17.2N 105.4W TUE MORNING, 18.1N 106.9W TUE EVENING, 19.1N 108.2W
WED MORNING, AND 20.0N 109.3W WED EVENING. FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 111.3W LATE THU. OTHERWISE, A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 89W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH SEAS TO 7 FT IS S OF 01S BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST,
MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WED.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW
SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N139W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 18N BETWEEN 112W
AND 118W. ELSEWHERE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 4
TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG
WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY THU MORNING, AND N
OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 129W BY FRI MORNING.
RAMOS
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