851
AXPZ20 KNHC 300951
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0910 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 101.8W AT 30/0900
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 15 FT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO
20N BETWEEN 93W AND 122W. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STEADY-TO-RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA,
AND ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, LATE TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N90W TO 11N95W, THEN
CONTINUES W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 13N107W TO 09N125W TO 06N136W.
THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM
THE CONVECTION RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 10N E OF 87W, FROM 09N TO 12N
BETWEEN 119W AND 123W, AND FROM 07N TO 10W BETWEEN 130W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN
AT THE ENTRANCE AND IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS IN TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS ARE MODERATE
TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL
ARE ALSO ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM FLOSSIE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 15.7N 102.9W THIS
AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.8N 104.6W TUE
MORNING, 17.7N 106.3W TUE AFTERNOON, 18.5N 107.7W WED MORNING,
19.4N 108.8W WED AFTERNOON, AND 20.4N 109.8W THU MORNING. FLOSSIE
WILL WEAKEN AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 22.7N 111.9W EARLY
FRI. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA
SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND DOWNWIND
TO ABOUT 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE ONGOING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS, WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S AND
LARGE S SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS WITHIN 6 TO 8 FT TO THE REGION.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST,
MAINLY AT NIGHT, IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU EVENING, THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND
EVENT WILL AFFECT THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR OFFSHORE WATERS
WED EVENING THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH
CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH TUE
EVENING.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N138W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
THE MONSOON TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTS MODERATE NE TO E WINDS N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ABOUT 30N W OF 120W. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS ARE OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 100W AND 118W. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 4 TO 6 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS
AND SEAS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. BY WED MORNING, SEAS GENERATED BY
STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY THU
MORNING, AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 119W AND 129W BY FRI MORNING.
RAMOS
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