473  
WTPZ41 KNHC 302041  
TCDEP1  
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025  
300 PM CST MON JUN 30 2025  
 
FLOSSIE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY, WITH CONVECTIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C OVER THE  
LOW-LEVEL CENTER, AND WELL-DEFINED CURVE BANDING FEATURES. AN  
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 1629 UTC SHOWED A PEAK WIND OF 47  
KT, AND HELPED TO REFINE THE CURRENT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND  
RADII. LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES  
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT, INCLUDING A T/3.5 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE  
SATELLITE TRENDS, THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT CLOSES TO UW-CIMSS  
ADT AND THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATES.  
 
THE STORM IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE  
STRENGTHENING, CURRENT SSTS ARE AROUND 29-30C, WITH LOW VERTICAL  
WIND SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE HIGHER END OF  
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOW HAS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT, CLOSEST  
TO THE REGIONAL HURRICANE HAFS MODELS. IN ABOUT 48 H, ENVIRONMENTAL  
CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE HOSTILE, WITH DRIER AIR AND  
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY  
WEAKENING TREND. BY DAY 4, FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A  
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE  
CONVECTION WITHIN THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT.  
 
THE INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, OR 305/10 KT.  
A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE  
FORECAST PERIOD STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST  
WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND LIES CLOSEST TO THE HCCA  
CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE SHOULD BRING LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF  
GUERRERO, MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY  
IN STEEP TERRAIN.  
 
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, LATER TODAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 30/2100Z 16.2N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH  
12H 01/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH  
24H 01/1800Z 17.9N 106.7W 80 KT 90 MPH  
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 108.1W 90 KT 105 MPH  
48H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 80 KT 90 MPH  
60H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH  
72H 03/1800Z 21.0N 111.6W 50 KT 60 MPH  
96H 04/1800Z 22.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 05/1800Z 24.9N 114.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
 
 
FORECASTER KELLY  
 
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