737
AXPZ20 KNHC 302131
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 103.6W AT 30/2100
UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 20 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 60 NM NW
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED IN BANDS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN
100W AND 107W. FLOSSIE'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES,
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA, GUERRERO, MICHOACAN, COLIMA, AND
JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP
TERRAIN. SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W TO 11N95W, THEN
CONTINUES W OF T.S. FLOSSIE FROM 12N114W TO 07N136W. THE ITCZ
STRETCHES FROM 07N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO T.S. FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 07N E OF 87W
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, AND FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
EXCEPT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS ARE NOTED. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF FLOSSIE ARE REACHING THE COAST OF
GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN BASED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA.
OUTSIDE OF FLOSSIE, SEAS ARE MODERATE IN MIXED SWELL ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.0N 105.0W TUE MORNING, MOVE TO 17.9N 106.7W TUE
AFTERNOON, 18.8N 108.1W WED MORNING, 19.5N 109.3W WED AFTERNOON,
20.1N 110.5W THU MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
21.0N 111.6W THU AFTERNOON. FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
NEAR 22.9N 113.2W BY FRI AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE
WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAT 10N90W. A RIDGE ACROSS
THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS THESE WINDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
INDICATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF 05N,
AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY WINDS N OF 05N. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS, WITH
THE HIGHEST SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO STRONG
SPEEDS, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO
ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N138W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 120W, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SEAS
ARE IN GENERAL 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE WINDS
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS S OF FLOSSIE, AND FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE
THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY THU NIGHT, AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W
AND 126W BY FRI MORNING.
GR
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