268
AXPZ20 KNHC 010405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 104.3W AT 01/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 23 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO
20N BETWEEN 98W AND 120W. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 8 INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
GUERRERO, MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA, AND
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N98W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE FROM 13N109W TO 10N122W TO 06N136W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N136W TO BEYOND 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO HURRICANE FLOSSIE, SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 13N E OF 90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
SEEN IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ARE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ARE SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 17.4N 105.7W
TUE MORNING, 18.2N 107.3W TUE EVENING, 18.9N 108.7W WED MORNING,
19.5N 109.7W WED EVENING, 20.0N 110.4W THU MORNING, AND WEAKEN AS
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 21.0N 111.4W THU EVENING. FLOSSIE
WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.0N 113.5W LATE FRI.
OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD
INDUCE FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
GIVES THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND
DOWNWIND TO NEAT 89W. A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS
THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL.
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S WITH 7 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO STRONG
SPEEDS, WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU DUE TO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO
ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N138W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 120W, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS. SEAS
ARE IN GENERAL 4 TO 6 FT WITHIN THESE WINDS. MAINLY MODERATE S TO
SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE WINDS
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS S OF FLOSSIE, AND FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BY WED, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE
THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF
28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY THU NIGHT, AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W
AND 126W BY FRI MORNING.
RAMOS
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