846
WTPZ41 KNHC 010847
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
300 AM CST TUE JUL 01 2025
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING, EVIDENT BY AN
EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE. A COUPLE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 0337Z AND
0428Z HELPED IN LOCATING THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CDO, AND ASSISTED
WITH THE REFINEMENT OF THE 34 AND 50 KNOT WIND RADII. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T4.0/65 KNOTS FROM
BOTH SAB AND TAFB. THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 69
TO 79 KNOTS AT 06Z. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, AND TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 75 KNOTS FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
FLOSSIE IS HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/09 KNOTS. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED, AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED INTO A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSELY
ALIGNED WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST HCCA, TVCE, AND FSSE CONSENSUS
AIDS AS WELL AS THE LATEST EC-AIFS RUN.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
28/29C, ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE LATEST SHIPS RI PROBABILITIES SHOW A GREATER THAN 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 25-KNOT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS. RAPID WEAKENING WILL THEN BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS
FLOSSIE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BEGINS TO ENTRAIN
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
LOW BY 72 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW AT 96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS, CLOSEST TO SHIPS
AND NNIC.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO,
MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, THROUGH TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0900Z 16.9N 105.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 17.5N 106.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 18.4N 107.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 20.0N 110.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 20.9N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 112.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/0600Z 23.7N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 24.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER JELSEMA
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