530
AXPZ20 KNHC 010940
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.9N 105.1W AT 01/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 85 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE 24 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO
20N BETWEEN 97W AND 115W. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH WEAKENING STARTING BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES, ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO,
MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAINFALL
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA, AND ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREAS, OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SWELLS
GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N97W, THEN CONTINUES
W OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE FROM 14N109W TO 09N124W TO 07N136W. THE
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N136W TO BEYOND 05N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION RELATED TO HURRICANE FLOSSIE, NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 01N AND E OF 84W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND
123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE, REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN NW SWELL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
SEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SE
WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA REMAIN SLIGHT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 17.5N 106.2W
THIS AFTERNOON, 18.4N 107.7W WED MORNING, 19.2N 109.0W WED
AFTERNOON, 20.0N 110.2W THU MORNING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 20.9N 111.3W THU AFTERNOON, AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND
MOVE TO 21.9N 112.5W FRI MORNING. FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.7N 114.9W EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE, A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHOULD INDUCE FRESH TO
STRONG SE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES
THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 89W. SEAS
HAS BUILT TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL. BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S WITH 7 TO
8 FT IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH WED WITH MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS EQUATORIAL
S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 39N137W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF 120W, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AS
INDICATED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 5 TO
7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. MAINLY MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS S OF FLOSSIE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. BY WED, SEAS GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE
THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST WATERS, BUILDING SEAS TO 8 TO 9 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W BY THU NIGHT, AND N OF 27N
BETWEEN 120W AND 126W BY FRI MORNING.
RAMOS
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