477
WTPZ41 KNHC 011438
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
900 AM CST TUE JUL 01 2025
FLOSSIE IS STILL INTENSIFYING, WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A
FORMATIVE EYE. IN ADDITION, RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW AN EYE
AND EYEWALL PRESENT UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 75-85 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9 KT. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS FLOSSIE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE OR ITS
REMNANTS IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THEY BECOME STEERED MORE BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK, WHICH GENERALLY SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MODELS, IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH
72 H AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT TIME.
THE WIND SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS FLOSSIE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. WHILE
THE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL TAKE ABOUT
24 H TO REACH WATER COLD ENOUGH TO STOP INTENSIFICATION. BASED ON
THIS, THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ANOTHER 24 H OF
STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT, FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN,
WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY
96 H. THE FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
FOR THE FIRST 36 H AND NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF
MICHOACáN, COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 17.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 18.1N 107.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 19.0N 108.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.6N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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