280
WTPZ41 KNHC 012032
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST TUE JUL 01 2025
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEP COLD
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EYEWALL. GOES SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO CLEAR OUT AND WARM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 90-95 KT. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS
AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 95 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9 KT. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FLOSSIE
MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN, A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS THE STORM
IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE PREVIOUS, WHICH IS NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED
CONSENSUS.
FLOSSIE WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS,
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, AND WEAK WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO INCREASINGLY
COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IN ABOUT 24 H. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM, WHICH IS ABOVE
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. AFTERWARDS, FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN, WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 72 H, AND A
REMNANT LOW BY 96 H AND DISSIPATED BY DAY 5. THE LATEST NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM, BEFORE TRENDING TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AIDS AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 17.7N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 18.5N 107.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 20.4N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 21.3N 112.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY/E.ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page