656
AXPZ20 KNHC 012111
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 106.7W AT 01/2100 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
966 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115
KT. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 60 NM TO THE
NORTHEAST AND 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SEAS IN
EXCESS OF 12 FT REACH AS FAR AS 150 NM FROM THE CENTER OF
FLOSSIE, WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 31 FT. FLOSSIE WILL
REMAIN IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO COLDER WATERS. OUTER BANDS OF
HURRICANE FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN, COLIMA,
AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N90W TO 11N97W, THEN
CONTINUES WEST OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE FROM 14N115W TO 08N130W TO
07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO HURRICANE FLOSSIE,
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO
08N EAST OF 90W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 120W, CENTERED BY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
40N135W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHERE COMBINED
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND 2 TO 3 FT
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES PREVAIL OFF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS WHERE COMBINED SEAS
ARE 3 TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. THE REMAINING WATERS OFF
MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO ARE IMPACTED BY FLOSSIE AS
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES PARAGRAPH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 18.5N 107.9W WED MORNING, 19.5N
109.3W WED AFTERNOON, 20.4N 110.7W THU MORNING. FLOSSIE WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR
21.3N 112.0W THU AFTERNOON. FLOSSIE WILL BECOME POST- TROPICAL
AND MOVE TO 22.1N 113.2W FRI MORNING, WEAKEN FURTHER TO A
REMNANT LOW WEST OF CABO SAN LAZARO NEAR 22.9N 114.6W FRI
AFTERNOON, THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT DRIFTS FARTHER WEST THROUGH
EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES
THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WITH ASSOCIATED
SEAS TO 7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL
AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL.
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S WITH 7 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT DUE TO THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND A LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH CROSS
EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO THU. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 40N135W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
120W, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AS INDICATED BY EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE IN GENERAL 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL
NORTH OF 15N. FARTHER SOUTH, LARGE S TO SW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT
COVERS MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LARGE SOUTHERLY
SWELL PERSISTING SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 90W THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS MAY BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W TO 120W, GENERATING SHORTER
PERIOD WAVES THAT WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL IN
THAT AREA.
CHRISTENSEN
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