132  
WTPZ41 KNHC 020252  
TCDEP1  
 
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025  
800 PM MST TUE JUL 01 2025  
 
AFTER BRIEFLY FILLING, THE RAGGED EYE OF FLOSSIE HAS REAPPEARED ON  
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE  
FROM 0133 UTC SHOWED THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL WAS SLIGHTLY ERODED.  
SINCE THEN, INFRARED SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN CONTINUOUS  
DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. OBJECTIVE AND  
SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90 TO 107  
KTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND  
OF THESE ESTIMATES.  
 
FLOSSIE HAS ABOUT A 12-24 HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN IN CONDUCIVE  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER, GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST DRIER  
AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEER COULD BEGINNING DISRUPTING THE  
CIRCULATION ON WEDNESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH  
THE STORM CROSSING THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM AND MOVING OVER COOLER  
WATERS WHICH SHOULD HASTEN WEAKENING. FLOSSIE IS NOW FORECAST TO  
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 H.  
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT. THE TRACK  
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING  
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE  
SHALLOW, IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN,  
COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE  
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 02/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 100 KT 115 MPH  
12H 02/1200Z 18.9N 108.5W 110 KT 125 MPH  
24H 03/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W 85 KT 100 MPH  
36H 03/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W 70 KT 80 MPH  
48H 04/0000Z 21.5N 112.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
60H 04/1200Z 22.5N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL  
72H 05/0000Z 23.3N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
96H 06/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW  
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BUCCI  
 
 
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