752
AXPZ20 KNHC 020357
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 02/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 962 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 120 KT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT REACH AS FAR AS 120 NM
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM
THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE, WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 31 FT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM FROM THE CENTER OF
FLOSSIE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 117W. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FLOSSIE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATER WEDNESDAY, STEADY TO RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SWELLS
GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 11N101W, THEN
CONTINUES WEST OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE FROM 13N112W TO 08N125W TO
06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO HURRICANE FLOSSIE,
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 02N TO
11N EAST OF 99W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST
OF 120W, CENTERED BY 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
40N135W. THIS PATTERN IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHERE COMBINED
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZES AND 2 TO 3 FT
ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FARTHER SOUTH, LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES PREVAIL OFF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS WHERE COMBINED SEAS
ARE 3 TO 5 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. THE REMAINING WATERS OFF
MEXICO FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO ARE IMPACTED BY FLOSSIE AS
DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES PARAGRAPH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 18.9N 108.5W WED MORNING,
19.8N 109.9W WED EVENING, 20.6N 111.1W THU MORNING, WEAKEN AS A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 21.5N 112.3W THU EVENING, 22.5N 113.7W
FRI MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.3N 115.1W FRI
EVENING. FLOSSIE WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NEAR
24.0N 118.0W LATE SAT. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SW
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, BUT A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS FRESH
TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND TO
NEAR 89W, WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN S SWELL.
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE SE TO S WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL
PULSE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE N AND LOWER PRESSURE
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO ROUGH
CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO THU. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 37N137W. ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF
120W, PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7
FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL. FARTHER SOUTH, LARGE S TO SW SWELL OF 8
TO 10 FT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 88W AND 131W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LARGE SOUTHERLY
SWELL PERSISTING SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 90W THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS MAY BE ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W TO 120W, GENERATING SHORTER
PERIOD WAVES THAT WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL IN
THAT AREA.
RAMOS
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