974
WTPZ41 KNHC 020835
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST WED JUL 02 2025
FLOSSIE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
THE WELL-DEFINED EYE EVIDENT EARLIER TONIGHT HAS BECOME LESS
DISTINCT AND SOMEWHAT CLOUD FILLED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T5.5/102 KNOTS
FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KNOTS FROM SAB. MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 96 TO 107 KNOTS AT 06Z. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 100 KNOTS
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FLOSSIE IS HEADING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/9 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ALIGN WITH
THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE TRENDS, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GDMI, FSSE AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE CLOSING
QUICKLY, AS FLOSSIE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY LESS CONDUCIVE
WATERS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW AROUND
27C. WIND SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SO WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER
ADEQUATELY WARM WATER, THE INTENSITY SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE. FLOSSIE
WILL MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS, AND INTO A
DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, WITH FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL LOW BY 48 HOURS, WITH DISSIPATION FOLLOWING BY 96
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW A BIT FASTER
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF MICHOACáN,
COLIMA, AND JALISCO INTO WEDNESDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
2. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 18.6N 108.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 109.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 20.2N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.0N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER JELSEMA
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