031
WTPZ41 KNHC 022033
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 PM MST WED JUL 02 2025
FLOSSIE IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WANING AND BECOMING
ASYMMETRIC. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE WEAKENING, AND RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE IN
THE 80-90 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 85 KT. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1638Z ASCAT OVERPASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8 KT. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT,
FLOSSIE SHOULD LOSE VERTICAL DEPTH AS IT WEAKENS, WITH THE REMNANT
LOW BEING STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE MEAN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.
STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS FLOSSIE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE CYCLONE IS
PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 H AS IT STOPS
PRODUCING CONVECTION, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW
THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
96 H, AND THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 19.5N 109.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.1N 110.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1800Z 23.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 24.0N 117.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 24.7N 118.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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