716
WTPZ41 KNHC 030241
TCDEP1
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 PM MST WED JUL 02 2025
FLOSSIE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING, WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED. THIS TREND IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS, WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AT 4.5/77 KT AND SAB AT 4.0/65 KT. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 56 AND 72 KT. A BLEND OF THESE
DATA SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. FLOSSIE IS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE INDUCED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA REGION. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES VERTICALLY. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
WELL-SUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE
THURSDAY, OR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY LATE
SATURDAY, AROUND 72 HOURS FROM NOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 19.8N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.4N 111.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 23.6N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 24.1N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/BLAKE
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