801
AXPZ20 KNHC 030351
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 03/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80
KT.. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT REACH AS FAR AS 120 NM IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE CENTER
OF FLOSSIE, WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 25 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE
THURSDAY. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 KT, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15
KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED WITHIN
120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N84W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N97W
AND THEN TO 12N112W AND TO 07N130W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM
07N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO
HURRICANE FLOSSIE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 04N TO 14N AND
EAST OF 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON HURRICANE FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 32N145W
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EVIDENT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, MAINLY NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND MUCH HIGHER ARE FOUND BETWEEN
CABO SAN LUCAS, LAS TRES MARIAS AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AS
FLOSSIE PASSES THROUGH THAT AREA. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
WINDS AND 4-8 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS WILL BUILD
MODESTLY ACROSS THE ENTRANCE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE
WATERS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COASTS BETWEEN JALISCO AND MICHOACAN.
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, WITH
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, EXCEPT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINED SEAS ARE 6-8 FT PRIMARILY IN MIXED S
AND W SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE FLOSSIE IS NEAR 19.8N 110.2W AT 8 PM
PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 986 MB. FLOSSIE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.4N
111.3W THU MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 21.4N 112.7W
THU EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.6N 114.2W FRI
MORNING, 23.6N 115.9W FRI EVENING, 24.1N 117.4W SAT MORNING, AND
DISSIPATE SAT EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LARGE SWELL GENERATED FROM
FLOSSIE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AND COASTS FROM COLIMA AND JALISCO
TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA SUR TO PUNTA EUGENIA
THROUGH LATE THU. EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS THROUGH THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE W-NW AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS, BUT A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC,
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN, SUPPORT
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND DOWNWIND
TO 95W, WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS 6-9 FT. CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 04N.
MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS NOTED SOUTH OF 06N, WITH
MODERATE SEAS 5-8 FT IN S SWELL, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E WINDS ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH ON THU. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC
BY THU NIGHT, PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE
EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL
AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS INTO THU. MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE REST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE
RESULTS IN GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 5
TO 7 FT RANGE IN MIXED SWELL WEST OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE NE
WINDS, ALONG SEAS OF 6-8 FT. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 02N
AND BETWEEN 90W AND 120W, MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS AND
SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 6-8
FT DOMINATES SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL ZONE.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NW OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND STRENGTH W OF 120W. THE DOMINANT MARINE FEATURE WILL BE THE
LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUING SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 90W
THROUGH LATE THU, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE OF MODERATE SW SWELL
OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W TO 120W,
GENERATING WAVES THAT WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SW SWELL IN
THAT AREA.
DELGADO
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