025
WTPZ41 KNHC 030834
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
200 AM MST THU JUL 03 2025
FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN, WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS
INDICATING INSTRUMENT DERIVED WINDS OF ONLY 40 TO 45 KT NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE’S STRUCTURE HAS FURTHER DEGRADED, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ABSENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW FULLY EXPOSED.
BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8 KT. FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION, FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 60 HOURS, IF
NOT SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 111.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 22.1N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z 23.2N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 24.0N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS/JELSEMA/PAPIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page