102
AXPZ20 KNHC 030943
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT 03/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT REACH AS FAR AS 120 NM
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FROM THE
CENTER OF FLOSSIE, WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 21 FT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE
EXPOSED CENTER. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY. FLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY FLOSSIE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
FLOSSIE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED
FROM 04N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 87W AND 97W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 09N78W
AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 11N95W AND THEN TO 11N115W AND TO
07N130W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 97W AND 120W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NORTH OF 02N AND EAST OF 83W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.
ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF FLOSSIE.
ELSEWHERE, A SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO
CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
7-10 FT DUE TO SOUTHERLY SWELL. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS NEAR 20.1N 111.0W AT
2 AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. FLOSSIE WILL MOVE TO 20.9N 112.0W
THIS AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.1N 113.6W FRI
MORNING, 23.2N 115.2W FRI AFTERNOON, 24.0N 116.9W SAT MORNING,
AND DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, LARGE SWELL GENERATED
FROM FLOSSIE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AND COASTS FROM COLIMA AND
JALISCO TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA SUR TO PUNTA
EUGENIA THROUGH LATE TODAY. EXPECT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI MORNING.
LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OFF OAXACA AND GUERRERO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE W-NW AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BUT A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR AND ALSO IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.
THE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS IN THE AREA. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT IN THE AREA DESCRIBED.
MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 04N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF
PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TONIGHT, POSSIBLY PRODUCING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE
TO LARGE CROSS EQUATORIAL S TO SW SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TODAY. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N-NE WINDS NORTH OF 20N, ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT.
IN THE EASTERN WATERS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SUPPORTING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND A CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL IS
SUSTAINING SEAS TO 10 FT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NW OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND STRENGTH W OF 120W. THE DOMINANT MARINE FEATURE WILL BE THE
LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUING SOUTH OF 10N WEST OF 90W
THROUGH LATE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PULSE OF MODERATE SW
SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W TO
120W, GENERATING WAVES THAT WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SW
SWELL IN THAT AREA.
DELGADO
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