557
WTPZ41 KNHC 031434
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062025
800 AM MST THU JUL 03 2025
FLOSSIE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 40 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN, WITH THE
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY AND A
REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 60 H.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NEXT 36 H OR SO, FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL BEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/1500Z 20.6N 111.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.4N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 04/1200Z 22.6N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 23.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 24.3N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page