481
AXPZ20 KNHC 032150
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 03 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE GALE WARNING: THE REMNANT LOW OF
OF RECENT TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 21N112W, OR
ABOUT 175 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO AT 2100 UTC
WITH A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. IT IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 9 KT.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS DEPICTS GALE-FORCE
WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW WITHIN 60 NM IN
THE E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NW QUADRANT.
SEAS ARE 10 TO 14 FT WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 8 TO 12 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE CENTER. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW AS A
SWIRL OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL TYPE CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA FROM
18N TO 23N BETWEEN 110W AND 116W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW
IN THE W QUADRANT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
UNDERNEATH THE OBSERVED CLOUDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 22N114W LATE TONIGHT, WITH WINDS
EASING TO JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO
JUST BELOW 12 FT AT THAT TIME. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 97W AS DESCRIBED
BELOW IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 97W FROM 04N TO 17N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE
FROM 10N TO 14N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE THAT IS ALONG
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO
09N84W TO 09N94W TO 14N106W TO 11N113W TO 10N120W TO 07N128W,
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 07N137W AND TO
BEYOND 08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-105W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 110W-118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON A GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED TO POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FLOSSIE, THE GRADIENT RELATED TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THESE WATERS.
SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASS INDICATED A PATCH OF FRESH TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF AND OVER A SECTION OF THE
CENTRAL GULF. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3 TO 5 FT, EXCEPT FOR
HIGHER SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF AND OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 22N114W LATE
TONIGHT, WITH WINDS EASING TO JUST BELOW GALE-FORCE AND SEAS
LOWERING TO JUST BELOW 12 FT. ELSEWHERE, SWELL GENERATED BY
FLOSSIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT WHILE
SIMILAR WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF
INTO FRI MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH, TO AT TIMES, STRONG EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFF OAXACA AND
GUERRERO TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THE ONE DESCRIBED ABOVE
UNDER THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES INDICATE THAT MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
GUATEMALA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS IS ALONG 97W
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT WITH
THESE WINDS. MEANWHILE, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 04N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W CONTINUES WESTWARD. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND SOUTH OF
TEHUANTEPEC BY TONIGHT, POSSIBLY PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THROUGH FRI
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE TO LARGE CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS NEAR
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TODAY. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THIS PART OF THE REGION SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 20N,
ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL PRODUCING
SEAS TO 9 FT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT 01N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W STARTING
TONIGHT, WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FOR INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS RESULTING FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT GENERALLY TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AGUIRRE
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